Asymmetric and time-frequency effects of insecurity and macroeconomic dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria

Nigeria’s economic growth remains constrained by the nonlinear and evolving interplay between insecurity and macroeconomic instability. Using annual data from 1980–2020, this study employs a NARDL framework and wavelet coherence analysis to uncover asymmetric and time-frequency effects. Findings reveal a stable long-run relationship in which insecurity and inflation significantly hinder growth, while reductions in insecurity yield weaker gains. Wavelet results show persistent bidirectional causality between growth, insecurity, and inflation.