Journal Article • 2026
Religion occupies a central position in the social, political, and cultural life of Sub-Saharan Africa. While existing scholarship has examined its moral authority, social capital, and political influence, its economic role remains marginal in mainstream development analysis. This paper reconceptualises religious institutions as economic institutions that mobilise resources, accumulate capital, shape labour relations, and influence household and national development outcomes. Drawing on political economy and institutional economics, the study introduces the Religious Economic Complex (REC) framework, which explains how faith, trust, and cultural legitimacy are transformed into sustained economic power. Using a mixed-methods approach combining household survey data (N ≈ 45,000), cross-country development indicators, and qualitative case studies from Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, the paper demonstrates that religious institutions operate as quasi-market actors largely outside formal regulatory oversight. The findings indicate that religious economic activity is associated with significant opportunity costs for households and is linked to long-term development trajectories, particularly industrialisation and productive investment. By repositioning religion at the centre of economic analysis, the paper contributes a novel institutional perspective to development studies and highlights the importance of incorporating religious economic activity into development frameworks.
Nigeria Governance StudiesDevelopment Economics
Working Paper • 2026
Nigeria’s economic growth remains constrained by the nonlinear and evolving interplay between insecurity and macroeconomic instability. Using annual data from 1980–2020, this study employs a NARDL framework and wavelet coherence analysis to uncover asymmetric and time-frequency effects. Findings reveal a stable long-run relationship in which insecurity and inflation significantly hinder growth, while reductions in insecurity yield weaker gains. Wavelet results show persistent bidirectional causality between growth, insecurity, and inflation.
Economic AnalysisGovernance and State Capacity
Journal Article • 2026
This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Sub Saharan African countries using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model. We employ this method due to its flexibility in accommodating both stationary and non-stationary time series, as well as series with mixed integration orders. The findings indicate that, despite varied short-term impacts, foreign direct investment, human capital, and GDP per capita have substantial long term effects on economic growth in the region. These findings contribute to the debate on FDI’s role in tackling widespread poverty and high unemployment challenges.
Development EconomicsPolitical Economy
Journal Article • 2026
Capital flight remains a pervasive constraint on economic development in Nigeria, yet the dominant literature has concentrated on its determinants and magnitude rather than its internal structural consequences. This paper examines the developmental consequences of capital flight through an Economic Linkages Framework, an original conceptual architecture that synthesises Hirschman’s (1958) backward and forward linkage theory, Keynesian multiplier analysis, and endogenous growth theory to explain how capital flight disrupts the processes through which domestic investment generates compounding economic value. The framework distinguishes two structural pathways: positive economic linkages when capital is retained, and negative economic linkages when capital exits, producing weakened aggregate demand and structural fragmentation.
Political EconomyDevelopment Economics
Journal Article • 2026
The United Kingdom has committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with carbon pricing positioned as a central policy instrument. However, recent emissions outcomes reveal a pronounced asymmetry: sectors covered by emissions trading have achieved substantial reductions, while non-ETS sectors accounting for around 75% of territorial emissions have shown limited progress. Using verified UK ETS emissions data (2021–2024), this paper shows that the effectiveness of carbon pricing is closely constrained by features of policy architecture, including limited sectoral coverage, fragmented fiscal incentives, and structural inconsistencies in energy taxation.
Public PolicyUK Policy and Administrative Reform
Journal Article • 2026
Digital tax reforms that increase reporting frequency alter not only the reporting frequency of taxpayers but also the behavioural conditions that produce compliance information. This paper introduces behavioural reporting noise (BRN), defined as systematic distortions of reported compliance signals generated by adaptation to a reporting regime rather than underlying noncompliance. Using MTD-ITSA as a motivating example, the paper develops a theoretical framework around three mechanisms: compressed categorisation under deadline pressure, precautionary underclaiming under uncertainty, and misalignment between quarterly submissions and annual declarations.
Tax Administration and ComplianceDigital Governance
Journal Article • 2026
Nigeria maintains multiple parallel identification systems, including the NIN, BVN, voter registration, and SIM registration, each operating without shared infrastructure. Drawing on qualitative comparative institutional analysis, this paper examines how this fragmented architecture affects administrative reach and state capacity. The analysis finds that parallel registries produce systematic verification inconsistencies, raise transaction costs, constrain financial inclusion, and generate enforcement gaps that weaken service delivery and regulatory effectiveness.
Digital GovernanceGovernance and State Capacity
Journal Article • 2026
This paper investigates the impact of bureaucratic hurdles, particularly the Permanent Voter Card (PVC) collection process and polling unit re-distribution, on voter turnout in Nigeria's 2023 general election. Using sub-national data, it argues that these administrative bottlenecks functioned as de facto barriers to political agency, disproportionately affecting vulnerable demographics and contributing to the historically low turnout observed in the 2023 polls. The study provides recommendations for institutional reforms to enhance the inclusivity of Nigeria's electoral infrastructure.
Electoral PoliticsPublic Policy